Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
